Monday, October 3, 2011

STUFF

LG Group (Korea) to invest >$6.7B in solar, EV batts, LEDs and water treatment by '15. Panasonic, Hitachi also with new green plans.

Needham said downgrade HSOL. Shares now at lifetime low. SPWRA lowering financial guidance for '11. NGLPF facing financial trouble after encountering problems at their only operating plant. Shades of Solyndra.

Republicans yelling over last-minute DOE guarantees. EIA objects to 19 KY mining permits. Coal ash from '08 TN spill halfway cleaned. Huge ozone hole has appeared over Arctic for first time. Tuvalu Islands in Pacific out of aquifer water. Last coal-burning steamship in Great Lakes seeking Clean Water Act exemption. May be the same exemption Delta Queen wanted to continue plying Mississippi-Ohio Rivers.

TX drought could last until '20: TX climatologist. $5.2B damage to ag so far this year. Fed's outlook brighter: ends in December.

Chevron testing solar. Using Bright Source Energy solar-mirrors to boiler to pump steam into oil reservoirs in Calif. Could beat out using NG to get the steam.

Does rise of CO2  in atmos cause "fertilization effect" in flora, fauna and ag? Conventional science saying it makes forests more vulnerable to insects (which we are seeing), fires (seeing), and other problems (to be seen). I ask what effects are there on humans? And then, fertilization effect is short-lived w/out additional nutrient inputs, i.e. N. And the N needs microbes in soil.

Iraq to reach 3mb/d production by yearend from current 2.9.

Gazprom trying to get private Turk NG suppliers and cut off state pipeline operators.

"I just want my life back" Hayward's move into Kurdish Iraq is leading speculation over entry of other oil majors.

Russian oil production increased 1.23% so far this year, exports down 2.13%.

Shell's Singapore 500kb/d refinery fire impacting Asian gasoline market.

ENI undertaking repairs on its Obama-Brass pipeline in Nigeria after damage from sabotage. Exxon ship offshore Nigeria attacked, hostage taken.

Phillipine govt likely to convert Bataan nuke plant to coal.

Possible rare earth metals/minerals mega deposit on AK's Prince of Wales Island.

Silicon in solar ~6 grams/w.

FSLR trying its hand at 1-axis tracking after acquiring Ray Trackers.

Turks sent seismic ship to do their own NG exploring off Cyprus and got buzzed by Israeli fighters.

OPEC production might have increased 75kb/d in Sept to 30.05mb/d (highest since Nov '08).

Ecuador on track to launch largest smart grid in Latin America w/ GE.

Trace amounts of Plutonium found 28 miles from Fukushima.

Enviro/Native groups filed lawsuit challenging Shell's offshore drilling in Beaufort Sea.

Exxon to build 2 new tankers in Philly yard to carry North Slope oil to US west coast anticipating the pipeline shutdown.

"Wrangler" pipeline proposed to take Cushing OK oil to TX refineries.

N. Sea NG production down 25% in Q2.

Switzerland move toward shutdown of their 5 nuke reactors by '34. Well, that's a way away.

Iran's crude production fell in Aug. for 2nd consecutive month.

Ukraine's state-run energy firm and Exxon signed on to developing shale gas deposits. Europe's 4th-largest reserves (42TCF) behind Poland, France, Norway.

Chevron expects to start work on Venezuela project by yearend. Helmerich & Payne lawsuit over '10 takeover of 11 drilling rigs there.

Chevron also to go ahead with $29B LNG project in W. Australia.

Brazil has quadrupled gasoline imports because of ethonal shortages.

2:45P

Will Rogers playing lead in Mark Twain's "A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court" on TV. I know. And the S&P bottom has not held at least to this hour. Market down 233/72/28. I guess there's no trust, belief or confidence. For now. Hay. It's the market.

OPEN

(stock #'s in %)

Market down 65/15/7. Second test already of Aug-Sept S&P lows. Volume last reported weak, but I think now a little heavy. Oil down under $78.

Market was down before factory activity reported for Sept. Index up 51.6 v. Aug's 50.6. 26th straight month of expansion. Factory employment 53.8 v. 51.8, production 51.2 v. 48.6. Market went green, now back down.

NPWZ up 34. Announced Boeing exploring their FC tech to deploy to replace mech, hydraulic systems with electric. HEV up another 31 after Friday's 50. CCTC up 11. FCEL up 5 on getting a $3M award. UBRG up 5.

CLNO down 18. AMEL down 14. CBAK down 12. ZAAP down 10. BWEN down 9. ALTI down 8. RBCN, HSOL down 7, new lows. AMSC, XSNX down 6, new lows. JASO down 5, new low. AONE down 5. ZOLT, PWER, COMV, CREE, FSLR down 4, new lows.

Will the bottom hold?

PRE-OPEN

The S&P is only 6-10 points from another August/Sept bottom test (1,120-1,125). With the recent news from Greece of missing their deficit targets and today's sell-off in Asia and Europe, today is shaping up to be a test of whether we go lower from this 2-month trading range or not. If you look at the all-time chart, it looks like, yea, we go lower here for maybe until spring. Posssibly another test of 10k Dow and 1k S&P, maybe a trading range between what, 9k Dow to 11 (?) until growth really resumes, which some economists are suggesting is usually about 5 years out from major financial crises like the one we experienced in '07-08. Oil is down another buck already today.

Anyway, pards, it should be an interesting day. Buckle up.

P.S. I was going to do that analysis yesterday of the the clean E stocks with lowest price-to-sales (P/S), P/Book and P/Earnings but couldn't get to Yahoo portfolios pages the whole day. I'm reporting most of the best stocks with those lowest numbers in the daily reports anyway, though. My guess is most investors are still avoiding clean E with the loan guarantee investigations still in political play. Solar takes the brunt of that. But, like I said Friday, if this isn't bottoming of clean E stocks in general, we're in for a heap of hurt. Otherwise, there will still be daily froth, quick breaks off the bottoms and individual stocks that go up despite the market. And, again, I don't sell short.

Saturday, October 1, 2011

STUFF

In '80's, for every $2.20 borrowed, US produced $1 of additional goods/services. In '90's, it was $2.70. In '00's, $4.20.

Swiss National Bank doubled its monetary base last month.

5772 in Jewish calendar. The year they came out of Egypt?

Title 31 of US code requires annual audit of Ft. Knox gold. But Treasury has refused audit for >50 years. That's JFK years. So says a website and free book.

ARPA-E announced $156M of research projects to accelerate clean tech, rare earth alternatives, biofuel breakthroughs, thermal storage, grid controls and solar power electronics. 11 projects secured >$200M more in private capital. Half led by universities, 23% by small biz, 13% by national labs, 12% by large corps. Prior to this, ARPA-E  has awarded $365.7M to 120 projects in 7 program areas. Now its 80 projects, 12 program areas and $521.7M. Plants engineered to replace oil got $36M. Rare earth alternatives in critical techs got $31.6M. High-energy advanced thermal storage got $37.3M. Green electricity network integration got $36.4M. Solar agile delivery of electrical power tech got $14.7M. Ah, always the one left behind.

Mexico City inaugurated electric-taxi program.

And that, pards, is the come and go as seen so far.

MORE STUFF

NY Power Authority pulled the plug on proposed Great Lakes offshore wind farm because "it would require subsidy of $60-100M/yr". Offshore is more expensive.

57% of voters prefer free-market to govt subsidies for clean E. 27% think subsidies are better. I wonder if that goes for fossil and nuke subsidies as well. 71% said private sector better than govt for determining long-term benefits/potential of new tech. Which is it? 57% or 71%?! I wonder who did this poll of 1k folks. I can go with no subsidies. For anything.

Altaeros Energy Group to test helium-filled "flying" wind turbines in Maine. 500 feet up. Company led by MIT alumni.

Pattern Energy Group and Samsung completed agreement with Siemens to supply turbines for 4 wind power projects in Ontario totaling 870MW.

Fed judge in Idaho ruled DOI failed to analyze cumulative impact of oil/gas development on sage grouse in SW Wyoming, and failed to include enough data on alternatives for grazing in an Idaho national monument. I don't know what companies - if any - this impacts or if it's right or wrong. But it just keeps us aware of energy and environment, doesn't it?

DOE doled out $4.75B in loan guarantees Friday. And that's the end of that program. FSLR got $646M for 230MW project and $1.46B for 550MW  project, both in Calif. FSLR sold them both. ProLogics got $1.4B to put solar on ~750 of its warehouses. SPWRA (Total majority owner) got $1.24B for 250MW CA project and sold that. If you noticed, FSLR got about $3/w and SPWRA got ~$5. Who knows what's really going on, right?

Happy trails, pards.

FRIDAY CLOSE

(stock #'s in %)

Market down 240/65/28. Volume very heavy. Oil down to near $79.

HEV up 52. That was a bounce back. AEBF up 25. Back over all their lines. NPWZ up 16. NEXS up 15. CREG up 14. CCTC up 11. BWEN, QTMM, QTWW up 7. CSUN up 5, for some reason the only solar that can go up. UBRG up 4. Getting traction.

CSKH down 21, back to bottom. ENOC down 17. Brought back to near bottom. Classic double bottom? DSTI down 15, new low. Are they going to get their CIGS to market? VNDB down 14. CPWY, GRHU down 13. URRE down 12, new low. AMSC down 11. Back to the bottom. VECO down 10, new low. NTCXF down 10. POWR, NGLPF down 9. HSOL, SYNM, SYZM down 8. WEST, ITRI down 8, new lows. PWER, SPWRA down 7, new lows. AONE down 7, coming back to bottom. CSIQ down 6, new low. GEVO, CREE, JASO down 5, new lows. ECTY. ZOLT down 4, back on the bottom. ELON down 3, new low. ASYS down 2, hit new low. FSLR down 2, near bottom. GTAT down 2.

If we're not close to or at the bottom for clean energy, then I'm nuts.

Onward and upward, pards. Your choice.