Tuesday, March 12, 2013

STUFF (2 degrees Celsius, folks)

Scientists are scared by governments non response. Most people haven't a clue. 2 degrees Celsius.

May have reported here yesterday: TSLA delaying production of Model X ... CREE unveiled $10 LED bulb.

Japan tapped into methane hydrate deposit offshore. Probably world 1st such tap. Estimates that carbon in gas hydrates worldwide totals at least 2x that in all earth's other fossil fuels. (So, we're digging deeper.) Japan has invested hundreds of millions of dollars (billions of yens) since early '00 to explore hydrate reserves in Pacific, Sea of Japan. Special drill converts meth hyd into ice, NG. Brought NG to surf. Would be Japan's 1st natural energy source. Hopes to make tech viable in ~5 yrs. Comp estimates ~40TCF hydrates in drilling area. 11 yrs worth of Japan demand. Japan agency rough est hydrates in Japan waters over 7T cubic meters, ~100 yrs of demand. USGS says US has large deposits offshore Carolinas.

DOE issued more money for small modular nuke tech. (That's all I got so far on $. Or whom to.) 2nd anniversary of Fuku.

Major NG producer leaving EPA voluntary emissions reduction program in dispute over how EPA used data collected to justify regs for sector.

Dutch foundation suing Dutch govt for failing to act to meet EC climate goals of 25-40% GHG emission reductions by '20. That would maintain 50% chance of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius.

Asian backers exited Nwest US coal export project.

Research: recent monsoon patterns in US Swest unusual.

Strict protection of lands has helped Brazil effort to slow deforestation.

Energy efficiency measures may be in rare political "sweet spot" in US: study.

Australia's Climate Change Dept facing serious cuts ... Melanesia region gearing up to tackle clime change.

Fracking fluid suppliers defend trade secrets on US west coast.

Dow Chem funded study: NG prices in US would triple with aggressive LNG exports.

Suntech (STP) managed to delay $541M bond payment for 2 months to mid-May. 60% of bondholders agreed to extend. Shares down 7% today.

S Africa agreed to buy over 1/2 power - 2.5Gw - from 1st stage of planned $80B hydropower project in Congo. Should enable Congo to secure initial $10B required. Mining comps in Congo expected to buy 2.3Gw. Transmission network expected to be built throughout southern Africa to supply countries including Angola, Namibia. 1st phase may take up to 7 yrs to build. Plant will be built in 7 phases. May ultimately produce up to 40Gw.

(Trying to listen to Grantham on Rose as I write.)

Algenol (FL) hit 9K gal/acre/y of algae to ethanol process. 50% above original target. Aims to complete demo this yr, head for commercial scale next yr. Tech enables production of ethanol for ~$1/gal with sunlight, CO2, saltwater. Patented photobioreactors, proprietary downstream tech. 1 ton CO2 converts to 160 gal of ethanol. 2 gal of fresh water produced for each gal of ethanol. Jetfuel, diesel also to be produced, possibly propylene-based chems. Large Indian comp invested $93M.

RIN prices soared past $1 as blend wall arrived. Costs likely to be passed on to consumers (when does that not happen?). Prices up because blenders refuse to add over 10% ethanol to gasoline. Blending mandates (govt) require more. If blenders don't buy eth they must buy RINs.

AMRS (Cal) joined Bonsucro - Brazil's certified standard (recognized by EC) for sugarcane producers. AMRS the 1st advanced biofuels producer to do so, paving way for certification of their products. Bonsucro has 26 sugarcane mills.

ASU, Stanford, Carnegie research:  conversion of huge swaths of land for sugarcane plantations lead to regional temp changes. 1 degree Celsius decrease in growing season, 1 degree C increase after harvest.

EC approved Sinopec's buyout of Vestas Terminals in Holland.

Korsair (Germany) licensing Russian waste-to-energy tech (AIST).

Thailand minister wants all new buses to run on ethanol to help stabilize prices of ethanol, cassava.

Baswood Corp (TX) started up full scale biological pretreatment at Dr Pepper/Snapple Houston bottling plant. Energy-efficient solution significantly lowers biochem ox demand in plant's effluent. Inventor studied rivers, saw how bacteria worked in different aeration enviros.

Germany gets 44% more GDP/kg of oil equivalents than US. UK 67%. Switzerland 123%. If US got that efficient it would already be energy self-sufficient. The secret? Energy policy based on real cost pricing.

Spain's shale gas reserves could meet domestic demand for over 40 yrs. Estimates of 50TCF. Last 5 yrs near 100 comps applied for licenses to explore, frack.

Petro China to invest $3.7B in Australia LNG projects. Part of planned $60B investment through decade. China pretty well supplied with NG through '20, but looking beyondo.

Atlantic Power Comp to sell its interests in Duke-American Transmission Comp Path 15 project.

Cohn Reznick, Reznick Capital Markets closed on $88M sale/leaseback of 23.4Mw Puerto Rico wind farm.

Consumers Energy's program awarded $7.3M of incentives in 4Q12 to help Mich commercial, industrial customers become more energy efficient. Exceeded year-end goals.

Scania (Sweden), Siemens to develop EV's.

Cash rebate for Hawaii El customers who install solar water heaters to be increased to $1K for limited time.

Canada investing $5.9M to enable Eocycle Tech to demo commercial, tech viability of transverse flux permanent magnet generator wind turbine. High torque low speed for large wind turbs. Smaller, lighter. 35% cost reduction.

SATCQ customers in HI scrambling for power inverters. ~400 PV commercial projects. SATCQ began liquidating assets last month. Failed to find buyer. Commercial PV projects typically have 1 inverter/100Kw. "Not like buying a toaster."

Pattern (Cal), Samsung got $700M debt finance to build 270Mw onshore Ontario wind farm. Siemens turbines, CS Wind towers. Ontario Power Authority 20-yr PPA at 13 cents/Kwh.

Chevy Volt outsold Nissan Leaf last year.

Fuel from trash, crop waste to match corn ethanol prices by '16. Cellulosic ethanol costs ~94 cents/liter now. About 40% more than corn eth. Refinery construction biggest expense for producers last year. May account for up to 45% of cost of making cell eth by '16. Feedstock ~ 34%. "Semi-commercial" plants that produce ~90M liters/y cost ~$290M to build. 10 such plants planned, under development or operating. Half in US.

Poet agreed to process sorghum from Chromatin into eth at its largest plant (110M gal/y) in SD. Up to 4.4K acres in state. Chromatin's 4th deal with US eth producers this year. 1st outside Cal. Eth made from sorghum may qualify as advanced biofuel by EPA. US producers must blend 2.75B gals of advanced biofuels this year (that ain't goinna happen).

1 gallon gasoline = ~200 manhours of work.

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