STUFF

Axiom Capital: a number of solars currently experiencing order cancellations out of Germany.

NENED entered into agreement with DOE NREL. So. Still in development and there are competitors, but they may be a Wall Street darling.

T Bone Pickens sees $300 oil in 10 years if we don't repent. "We can get to 8M 18-wheelers on NG in 7 yrs, which would cut our OPEC feed in half." We got to the moon in 7 years. Who remembers that?

China says it will cut nukes' '20 target from 80GW. Didn't say how much. Plans to increase solar target from 20GW. Didn't say how much. At this point, wouldn't we all just say give us coal? Hopefully cleaner? 27 nukes in development in China. 50 more planned.

NRC since '03 has allowed phasing out equipment that eliminates H at nuke plants. Containment structures strong enough. Uh huh. H "recombiners" since 3-mile island. But the industry wanted to save money. Who doesn't? Over half US operators applied to drop the recombiners. '03 NRC rule change said plants can pump in N instead of air (80% N) because the H needs O to ignite. Some plants have "igniters" to burn off the H. It's all being looked at again.

Bandied-about facts:
Oil imports subtract $1B/day from US trade balance. Oil says 1M bls of domestic crude generates 1M jobs and contributes $30B to GDP. We've gone from 60% imported oil in '07 to 50% now. Our elgen is all US. Yay. At least we have that right. 20% oil imports now from Canada, 10% from oil sands. Keystone pipeline to gulf refineries still to get go-ahead. 10% imports from Mex, Columbia, Brazil. 25% from Persian Gulf, N. Africa, Venezuela, Nigeria.

We cut oil imports in half from '77 to '82. Oil was 15% US elgen in '75 - 1.4mbpd. '75 E Act  mandated auto efficiency to double to 27mpg by '85. But the ball was dropped when oil prices came down in the '80's and '90's. Imports went from 27% in '85 to 60%. Of course, it made sense to buy their oil when it was that cheap. Our gas usage may actually have peaked in '07. Efficiency requirements now 35mpg by '20. Ethanol 9B gal/y in '08 to target of 36B in '22. And a basic ICE engine can get to 50mpg to replace 38% gas demand by '30 by doubling biofuel blending to 30B gal/yr by '30. (Check that 36B gal by '22). Our 8M trucks use 40B gal/y. It would take 5TCF/y of NG to replace that (2.3mbpd of oil). US NG reserves are 284TCF with fracking. But, of course, NG is needed first for residential and other heating. And then we would need NG pumps at our gas stations and other infrastructure. In '09 the US produced more oil than the previous year for the first time since '85. Gulf deepwater/Bakken/other. In '10 production rose 3%. One estimate that US will produce 2.4mbpd more by '16 on top of  '10's 8.6. Eastern gulf, Atlantic coast has 3.8B bls (equiv to Norway's reserves). And then there's Cuba's northern waters. 200M years ago, more or less, our S. Atlantic coast separated from Africa and there's a lot of oil over there off west Africa.

Well, I'm not out of news but it's opening day of baseball. I want a hot dog with catchup, mustard and relish. And a beer.